Tournament Task: Part 2

July 10, 2019

 

In Part 1, we looked at what it usually takes to make the MCBL post-season tournament. In this segment, we’ll briefly look at what it takes to win the tournament.

 

1). How often does a lower seeded team make it to the finals?

 

In four of the previous nine years, a team other than the # 1 or # 2 seeded team has made it to the finals. # 3 teams have made it twice, # 4 teams once and # 5 teams once. So far, no # 6 seeded team has made it to the finals.

 

2). Has a lower seeded team ever won the tournament?

 

Yes. In 2011 the # 4 seeded Maryland Orioles got hot and won all of their tournament games to win the tournament.

 

3). Does being the home team make a difference?

 

Probably. Out of the previous 87 tournament games, the home teams has won 50 times (57.5 %). However, this is not quite statistically significant at the typical 95% confidence level. In fact, it doesn’t quite make the 90 % confidence level. So, there’s a possibility that the results we’ve seen could be due to chance alone.

 

4). Does being the # 1 and # 2 seeded teams make a difference?

 

Since the top 2 teams are seeded # 1 and # 2 and get a first round bye, you would expect them to do a bit better than the rest……given their performance during the regular season, the one less game they must have pitching for and the home field advantage they enjoy in at least two of the three semi-final games.

 

You would not be incorrect.

 

Every year of the tournament, either the # 1 or # 2 seeded teams make it to the finals. Except for 2011, every year the tournament has been won by the # 1 or # 2 seeded teams. They have faced each other five times in the last nine finals…..including each of the last four years. The # 1 seeded team has a slight edge in these matchups winning three while losing two to the # 2 seeded team.

 

5). How well does the regular season champion (e.g., # 1 seed) do?

 

Except for 2014, the # 1 seeded team has been in every final….winning five and losing three. As of the moment, six teams are still in contention to be the # 1 seed this year.

 

6). What can we expect to see this year?

 

Anything. We've had five different champions over the last five years.  Given the competitive balance in the league and given MCBL history where any team can get hot for a stretch, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a # 5 or # 6 seeded team make it to the finals and put on a show. Only time will tell.

 

See ya at the ballfield !